WA-03 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
94% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Democrat
Kristina Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is an American politician serving as the United States representative for Washington's 3rd congressional district since 2023.
John Braun
Republican
John Eric Braun is an American politician and former Navy captain from Washington.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 1 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16