WA-05 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
82% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Carmela Conroy
Democrat
Carmela A. Conroy is an American diplomat, politician, and former career Foreign Service officer whose 25-year diplomatic career included postings across Asia, Europe, and the Pacific.
Michael Baumgartner
Republican
Michael James Baumgartner is an American politician and former diplomat serving as the U.S. representative from Washington's 5th congressional district since 2025.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 5 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16