WA-08 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
96% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Kim Schrier
Democrat
Kimberly Merle Schrier is an American physician and politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Washington's 8th congressional district since 2019.
Spencer Meline
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 3 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16