WI-03 · House · 2026

Republicans are favored to win this seat

61% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Rebecca Cooke

Democrat

39%

Derrick Van Orden

Republican

61%

Derrick Francis Van Orden is an American politician, actor, and retired United States Navy SEAL who has served as the U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district since 2023.

Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 3 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16