NE Senate · 2026
Republicans have a slight edge to win this seat
52% probability
Candidates
Independent challenger -- treated as the out-party candidate. No Democrat is on the ballot; the probability shown is Dan Osborn's chance of winning.
Last verified 2026-09-14.
John Peter Ricketts is an American businessman and politician serving as the junior United States senator from Nebraska since 2023.
Open seat.
modeled from historical independent performance -- Osborn's 2024 run (46.5% vs Fischer, a different NE seat) overperformed NE's 2024 presidential lean by +14.0pp, the model's strongest single input
The percentage above is P(the independent candidate leads), not a Democratic win probability -- this race has no Democrat on the 2026 ballot. Small-sample model (n=11 historical races); wide confidence interval reflects that.
Why we think this
- This is an open seat with no incumbent on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting modestly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model independent-v1 · computed 2026-09-16