OK Governor · 2018
Republicans are heavily favored to win this governorship
99% probability
Candidates
Party-level forecast. The nominees are not yet selected; the win probability reflects the seat, not a specific matchup.
Not yet determined
Democrat
Not yet determined
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, who is not running.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 73 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle modestly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-17