AZ Governor · 2026
Democrats are strongly favored to win this governorship
86% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Kathleen Marie Hobbs is an American politician and social worker serving since 2023 as the 24th governor of Arizona.
Andrew Steven Biggs is an American politician and lawyer serving as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district since 2017.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Fundraising as of 2026-09-30 (Arizona Secretary of State (See The Money)).
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Democrats, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v2 · computed 2026-11-09