FL Governor · 2026
Democrats have a slight edge to win this governorship
52% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
David Wilson Jolly is an American attorney, politician, and lobbyist who served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 13th congressional district from 2014 to 2017 as a Republican.
Byron Lowell Donalds is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 19th congressional district since 2021.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, who is not running.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 12 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Democrats, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16