ME Governor · 2026
Democrats are favored to win this governorship
61% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Hannah Pingree
Democrat
Hannah M. Pingree is an American politician who served as the 99th speaker of the Maine House of Representatives from 2008 to 2010.
Bobby Charles
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, who is not running.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available, Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 29 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
- Model confidence held back -- see model details.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16