MN Governor · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this governorship
98% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Amy Jean Klobuchar is an American politician and lawyer serving as the senior United States senator from Minnesota, a seat she has held since 2007.
Lisa Demuth is an American politician serving since 2025 as the speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, who is not running.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 23 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Democrats, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle modestly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16