NM Governor · 2026
Democrats have a slight edge to win this governorship
58% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Debra Anne Haaland is an American politician who served as the 54th United States secretary of the interior from 2021 to 2025.
Greggory D. Hull is an American politician and businessman who served as mayor of Rio Rancho, New Mexico from 2014 to April 2026, the longest-serving mayor in Rio Rancho history.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, who is not running.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-05 (New Mexico Secretary of State (CFIS)).
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 29 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
- Model confidence held back -- see model details.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v2 · computed 2026-11-09