PA Governor · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this governorship
95% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Joshua David Shapiro is an American politician and lawyer serving since 2023 as the 48th governor of Pennsylvania.
Stacy L. Garrity is an American politician, businesswoman, and former United States Army Reserve officer who has served as the 79th treasurer of Pennsylvania since 2021.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Fundraising as of 2026-09-14 (Pennsylvania Department of State).
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 8 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Democrats, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v2 · computed 2026-11-09