TX Governor · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this governorship
82% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Regina Inez Hinojosa is an American lawyer and politician who is a member of the Texas House of Representatives, representing the 49th district.
Gregory Wayne Abbott is an American politician, attorney, and jurist who has served since 2015 as the 48th governor of Texas.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 15 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16