VT Governor · 2026
Democrats are favored to win this governorship
68% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Amanda Janoo
Democrat
Phil Scott
Republican
Philip Brian Scott is an American politician, stock car racer, and businessman who has served since 2017 as the 82nd governor of Vermont.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available, Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Fundraising: no automated state source yet.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 93 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting modestly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v2 · computed 2026-11-09