MT Senate · 2014
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
94% probability
Candidates
Candidates unconfirmed -- under review. This race's primary has passed but our roster does not yet have a confirmed name; a re-check has been queued.
Not yet determined
Democrat
Not yet determined
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, who is not running.
Not applicable to this race: Incumbent's past overperformance (no prior statewide race), Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 37 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting modestly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Republicans -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-17