NM Senate · 2020
Democrats are favored to win this seat
66% probability
Candidates
Candidates unconfirmed -- under review. This race's primary has passed but our roster does not yet have a confirmed name; a re-check has been queued.
Not yet determined
Democrat
Not yet determined
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, who is not running.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 41 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-17