TN Senate · 2024
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Party-level forecast. The nominees are not yet selected; the win probability reflects the seat, not a specific matchup.
Not yet determined
Democrat
Not yet determined
Republican
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 64 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-17