AK Senate · 2026
Republicans have a slight edge to win this seat
51% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Mary Sattler Peltola is an American politician and former tribal judge.
Daniel Scott Sullivan is an American politician, attorney, and Marine Corps veteran serving since 2015 as the junior United States senator from the state of Alaska.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 21 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Democrats, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v2 · computed 2026-11-09