CO Senate · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
John Hickenlooper
Democrat
John Wright Hickenlooper Jr. is an American politician, geologist, and businessman serving as the junior United States senator from Colorado since 2021.
Mark Baisley
Republican
Mark Baisley is an American politician who is a state senator from Roxborough Park, Colorado.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 39 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Democrats, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle modestly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16