FL Senate · 2026
Democrats have a slight edge to win this seat
50% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Angela Nixon is an American politician and businesswoman who has served as a member of the Florida House of Representatives since 2020.
Ashley Brooke Moody is an American politician and attorney serving since 2025 as the junior United States senator from Florida.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Incumbent's past overperformance (no prior statewide race), Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 12 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Democrats, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16