KS Senate · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
95% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Adam Hamilton
Democrat
Roger Marshall
Republican
Roger Wayne Marshall is an American politician, physician, and former military officer serving as the junior United States senator from Kansas since 2021.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 30 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle modestly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v2 · computed 2026-11-09