ME Senate · 2026
Republicans have a slight edge to win this seat
53% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Troy Dale Jackson
Democrat
Troy Dale Jackson is an American politician and logger.
Susan Collins
Republican
Susan Margaret Collins is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator for Maine since 1997.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 29 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
- Model confidence held back -- see model details.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v2 · computed 2026-11-09