NH Senate · 2026
Democrats are favored to win this seat
70% probability
Candidates
Candidates unconfirmed -- under review. This race's primary has passed but our roster does not yet have a confirmed name; a re-check has been queued.
Checked 2026-11-02 -- candidates could not be confirmed from the source at that time.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, who is not running.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 21 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v2 · computed 2026-11-09