NM Senate · 2026
Democrats are strongly favored to win this seat
79% probability
Candidates
Candidates unconfirmed -- under review. This race's primary has passed but our roster does not yet have a confirmed name; a re-check has been queued.
Checked 2026-09-14 -- candidates could not be confirmed from the source at that time.
Not yet determined
Democrat
Larry E. Marker
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 29 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16