OH Senate · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
81% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Sherrod Campbell Brown is an American politician who served from 2007 to 2025 as a United States senator from Ohio.
Jon Allen Husted is an American politician serving since 2025 as the junior United States senator from Ohio.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Incumbent's past overperformance (no prior statewide race), Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 15 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle significantly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16