VA Senate · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Mark Robert Warner is an American businessman and politician serving as the senior United States senator from Virginia, a seat he has held since 2009.
Bert Kameaaloha Mizusawa is a retired major general in the United States Army, serving in the Army from 1979 to 2015.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 28 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting strongly toward Democrats, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle modestly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16