WV Senate · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Democrat
Shelley Moore Capito
Republican
Shelley Wellons Moore Capito is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator from West Virginia.
Open seat.
Not applicable to this race: Candidate fundraising split, Candidate fundraising data available, Candidate fundraising split (state filings), State campaign finance data available · Built on annual structural data, current release 2026-05-29: State mood: Domestic Stability, State mood: Isolation. See /status for current data freshness.
Why we think this
- This state's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 92 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat with no incumbent on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
- Separately, current public mood in this state specifically is shifting significantly toward Republicans, on top of the structural baseline.
- Independently, the national midterm environment is shifting every race this cycle modestly toward Democrats -- a separate, nationwide force layered on top of the state-specific factors above, not a restatement of them.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · computed 2026-09-16