2026 Races

Every Senate, Governor, and House race the model covers: 71 Senate/Governor contests and 400 House districts.

0 districts redrawn for 2026.

Closest 25 races

GA-07

Tony Kozycki vs Rich McCormick

Toss-up
50.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

IA-03

Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach Nunn

Toss-up
51.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

PA-10

Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry

Toss-up
53.9% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

AZ-01

Amish Shah vs Jay Feely

Lean D
56.1% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

CO-03

Dwayne Romero vs Jeff Hurd

Lean R
56.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

NJ-07

Rebecca Bennett vs Thomas Kean Jr.

Lean D
57.6% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

NC-13

Paul Barringer vs Brad Knott

Lean D
58.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

CA-22

Randy Villegas vs David G. Valadao

Lean D
58.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

MI-10

Christina Hines vs Michael Bouchard

Lean R
58.8% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

VA-02

Elaine Luria vs Jennifer Kiggans

Lean D
59.1% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

CA-48

Wilpert vs Jim Desmond

Lean D
59.1% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

PA-01

Bob Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick

Lean D
59.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

WI-01

Mitchell Berman vs Bryan Steil

Lean R
59.9% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

NC-06

Cyril Jefferson vs Addison McDowell

Lean D
60.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

WI-03

Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden

Lean R
61.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

NY-03

Tom Suozzi vs Michael LiPetri Jr.

Lean D
61.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

VA-01

Shannon Taylor vs Robert J. Wittman

Lean R
62.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

AZ-06

JoAnna Mendoza vs Juan Ciscomani

Lean D
62.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

MO-05

Emanuel Cleaver vs Rick Brattin

Lean D
63.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

MI-04

Sean McCann vs Bill Huizenga

Lean R
63.9% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

IA-01

Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Lean R
64.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

TN-09

Justin Pearson vs Brent Taylor

Likely D
65.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

TX-32

Dan Barrios vs Jace Yarbrough

Likely D
65.9% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

FL-09

Darren Soto vs Dan Green

Likely D
67.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14

CA-13

Adam Gray vs Kevin Lincoln II

Likely D
68.2% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-14